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Stabaek vs hodd — 1. Division 2025

Stabaek
Stabaek
Preview
17:00
hodd
hodd
7/27/20261. Division1. Division · Round 15Nadderud Stadion
48%
Stabaek
model favours
48%24%28%

Stabaek score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Stabaek48%
×Draw24%
hodd28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabaek
1.70
hodd
1.23

Stabaek creates 38% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

creates per match

Stabaek
1.79
hodd
1.00

allows per match

Stabaek
1.46
hodd
1.61

finishing

Stabaek+0.00on par
hodd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabaek ↓

hodd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stabaek or draw
72%
Stabaek or hodd
76%
Draw or hodd
52%

Winning margin

Stabaek wins by 2+
26%
hodd wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stabaek 1+ goals
82%
Stabaek 2+ goals
51%
Stabaek 3+ goals
24%
hodd 1+ goals
71%
hodd 2+ goals
35%
hodd 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stabaek (draw refunded)
64%
hodd (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabaek at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

hodd away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabaek attack 1.79 + hodd defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.70

hodd attack 1.00 + Stabaek defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stabaek scores more
48%
level
24%
hodd scores more
28%

Stabaek at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stabaek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • hodd score first in only 33% of matches
  • hodd raise their game against the top half — 27% wins vs the upper half, only 25% vs the lower
  • 65% of Stabaek’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stabaek
WWLWD
hodd
WWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stabaek face hodd (1. Division)

1. Division returns with Stabaek hosting hodd. Match starts July 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stabaek host hodd at Nadderud Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.