Stabæk W 4–2 Røa W: Result & Stats | Toppserien

Stabæk W

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Røa W

T. Loennecken 90'

I. Omarsdottir 88'

M. Isaksen 66'

H. Sævik 29' (OG)

M. Midtbø 42'

O. Fuglem 7'

10/21/2023

Toppserien · Round 24Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Stabæk W48%

×Draw25%

Røa W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stabæk WExpected goals in this matchRøa W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.10

Stabæk W

1.58

Røa W

1.10

Stabæk W creates 44% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 57 away

1.36

creates per match

0.72

1.49

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Stabæk W

1.36

Røa W

0.72

allows per match

Stabæk W

1.49

Røa W

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stabæk W+0.00on par

Røa W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabæk W ↓

Røa W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stabæk W or draw

74%

Stabæk W or Røa W

75%

Draw or Røa W

52%

Winning margin

Stabæk W wins by 2+

25%

Røa W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stabæk W 1+ goals

79%

Stabæk W 2+ goals

47%

Stabæk W 3+ goals

21%

Røa W 1+ goals

67%

Røa W 2+ goals

30%

Røa W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Stabæk W (draw refunded)

65%

Røa W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabæk W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.49 · 67 matches

Røa W away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.81 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabæk W attack 1.36 + Røa W defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

Røa W attack 0.72 + Stabæk W defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stabæk W scores more

48%

level

25%

Røa W scores more

26%

Stabæk W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stabæk W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

O. Fuglem

29'

H. SævikOwn goal

42'

M. Midtbø

64'

M. Isaksen← A. Rasmussen

66'

M. Isaksen

69'

S. Døvle← C. Bogere

83'

O. Courcy← K. Haugstad

86'

I. Didriksen← T. Espås

88'

I. Omarsdottir

90+3'

M. Berg-Solemdal← T. Loennecken

90+3'

E. Kolbjørnsen← M. Serrano

90'

T. Loennecken

Stabæk

Røa

25

🥅

3

18

4

15

14

7

⚽

Fuglem

16

▼

Bogere

10

▼

Haugstad

22

▼

Espås

8

⚽

22

6

31

3

▼

Rasmussen

2

Bølviken

16

Helgesen

9

▼

Serrano

28

Kruse

4

⚽

▼

Loennecke

7

Bjånesøy

51

⚽

Omarsdott

Manager: P. Belsvik

64'▲M. Isaksen←▼A. Rasmussen

90+3'▲M. Berg-Solemdal←▼T. Loennecken

90+3'▲E. Kolbjørnsen←▼M. Serrano

Stabæk W substitutes

24Isaksen17Berg-Solemdal30Kolbjørnsen11Jönsson20Strømnes25Endresen44Norstrøm

Manager: G. Nordby

69'▲S. Døvle←▼C. Bogere

83'▲O. Courcy←▼K. Haugstad

86'▲I. Didriksen←▼T. Espås

Røa W substitutes

21Døvle30Courcy33Didriksen5Skogmo9Klæboe12Aspenes19Brendengen26Austdal

Toppserien: Stabæk W 4–2 Røa W

Stabæk W beat Røa W 4-2 in Toppserien on October 21, 2023.

Goals: O. Fuglem (7'), H. Sævik (29' o.g.), M. Midtbø (42'), M. Isaksen (66'), I. Omarsdottir (88'), T. Loennecken (90').

The match was played at Nadderud Stadion in Bærum.

Stabæk W vs Røa W — Toppserien 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Toppserien: Stabæk W 4–2 Røa W