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Stabæk W vs Fortuna Ålesund W — Toppserien 2021

Stabæk W
Stabæk W
Preview
14:00
Fortuna Ålesund W
Fortuna Ålesund W
10/31/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 21Nadderud Stadion
50%
Fortuna Ålesund W
model favours
27%22%50%

Stabæk W score first in 64% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stabæk W27%
×Draw22%
Fortuna Ålesund W50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabæk W
1.38
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.94

Fortuna Ålesund W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 5 away

creates per match

Stabæk W
1.36
Fortuna Ålesund W
2.40

allows per match

Stabæk W
1.49
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.40

finishing

Stabæk W+0.00on par
Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabæk W ↓

Fortuna Ålesund W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Stabæk W or draw
50%
Stabæk W or Fortuna Ålesund W
78%
Draw or Fortuna Ålesund W
73%

Winning margin

Stabæk W wins by 2+
12%
Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Stabæk W 1+ goals
75%
Stabæk W 2+ goals
40%
Stabæk W 3+ goals
16%
Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals
86%
Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals
58%
Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Stabæk W (draw refunded)
35%
Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabæk W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.49 · 67 matches

Fortuna Ålesund W away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabæk W attack 1.36 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 2.40 + Stabæk W defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stabæk W scores more
27%
level
22%
Fortuna Ålesund W scores more
50%

Fortuna Ålesund W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fortuna Ålesund W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Stabæk W win just 22% against the top half (vs 61% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LWWWL
W
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stabæk W face Fortuna Ålesund W (Toppserien)

Toppserien returns with Stabæk W hosting Fortuna Ålesund W. Match starts October 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stabæk W host Fortuna Ålesund W at Nadderud Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.