Stabæk W 1–3 Brann W: Result & Stats | Toppserien

Stabæk W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Brann W

M. Bjånesøy 74'

C. Redisch Kvamme 73'

S. Bjørneboe 53' (OG)

R. Nygård 20'

4/29/2023

Toppserien · Round 6Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Stabæk W18%

×Draw21%

Brann W61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stabæk WExpected goals in this matchBrann W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

2.10

Stabæk W

1.06

Brann W

2.10

Brann W creates 98% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 58 away

1.36

creates per match

2.72

1.49

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Stabæk W

1.36

Brann W

2.72

allows per match

Stabæk W

1.49

Brann W

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stabæk W+0.00on par

Brann W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabæk W ↓

Brann W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stabæk W or draw

39%

Stabæk W or Brann W

79%

Draw or Brann W

82%

Winning margin

Stabæk W wins by 2+

7%

Brann W wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Stabæk W 1+ goals

65%

Stabæk W 2+ goals

29%

Stabæk W 3+ goals

9%

Brann W 1+ goals

88%

Brann W 2+ goals

62%

Brann W 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Stabæk W (draw refunded)

23%

Brann W (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabæk W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.49 · 67 matches

Brann W away — creates 2.72, concedes 0.76 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabæk W attack 1.36 + Brann W defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.06

Brann W attack 2.72 + Stabæk W defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Stabæk W scores more

18%

level

21%

Brann W scores more

61%

Brann W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Brann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

R. Nygård

53'

S. BjørneboeOwn goal

57'

M. Ostenstad

59'

A. Frisbie← N. Ruuskanen

63'

A. Anderdal← M. Abrahamsen

63'

M. Dunsby← S. Vallotto

63'

M. Thoresen← S. Bjørneboe

69'

M. Bratberg Lund← K. Haugland

70'

A. Frisbie

73'

C. Redisch Kvamme

74'

M. Bjånesøy

79'

Z. Jönsson← I. Omarsdottir

88'

I. Holm Neset← R. Nygård

88'

S. Ritter← I. Stenevik

Stabæk

Brann

1

Mikalsen

5

▼

Stenevik

2

⚽

Kvamme

15

Østenstad

4

▼

Ruuskanen

8

▼

Haugland

7

Engesvik

14

⚽

▼

10

99

11

22

3

5

🥅

▼

Bjørneboe

2

Bølviken

16

Helgesen

9

▼

Abrahamse

4

Loennecke

8

Kielland

10

▼

Vallotto

7

⚽

Bjånesøy

51

▼

Omarsdott

Manager: P. Belsvik

63'▲A. Anderdal←▼M. Abrahamsen

63'▲M. Dunsby←▼S. Vallotto

63'▲M. Thoresen←▼S. Bjørneboe

79'▲Z. Jönsson←▼I. Omarsdottir

Stabæk W substitutes

19Anderdal21Dunsby95Thoresen11Jönsson15Høgevold18Rovelstad20Strømnes23Leonards25Garrad

Manager: O. Harder

59'▲A. Frisbie←▼N. Ruuskanen

69'▲M. Bratberg Lund←▼K. Haugland

88'▲I. Holm Neset←▼R. Nygård

88'▲S. Ritter←▼I. Stenevik

Brann W substitutes

9Frisbie19Lund17Neset22Ritter21Stavenes