Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

St. Truiden vs OH Leuven — Jupiler Pro League 2018

St. Truiden
St. Truiden
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
OH Leuven
OH Leuven
12/9/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 17Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

St. Truiden51%
×Draw23%
OH Leuven26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Truiden
1.81
OH Leuven
1.24

St. Truiden creates 46% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

creates per match

St. Truiden
1.88
OH Leuven
1.10

allows per match

St. Truiden
1.38
OH Leuven
1.75

finishing

St. Truiden-0.15scores less
OH Leuven-0.24scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Truiden ↓

OH Leuven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

St. Truiden or draw
74%
St. Truiden or OH Leuven
77%
Draw or OH Leuven
49%

Winning margin

St. Truiden wins by 2+
28%
OH Leuven wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

St. Truiden 1+ goals
84%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
54%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
27%
OH Leuven 1+ goals
71%
OH Leuven 2+ goals
35%
OH Leuven 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

St. Truiden (draw refunded)
66%
OH Leuven (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Truiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 22 matches

OH Leuven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Truiden attack 1.88 + OH Leuven defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

OH Leuven attack 1.10 + St. Truiden defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

St. Truiden scores more
51%
level
23%
OH Leuven scores more
26%

St. Truiden at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: St. Truiden 1–1 OH Leuven

St. Truiden and OH Leuven drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in St.-Trond.