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St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo — Jupiler Pro League 2018

St. Truiden
St. Truiden
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
2/24/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 27Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

St. Truiden50%
×Draw22%
KVC Westerlo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Truiden
1.94
KVC Westerlo
1.40

St. Truiden creates 39% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 25 away

creates per match

St. Truiden
1.88
KVC Westerlo
1.42

allows per match

St. Truiden
1.38
KVC Westerlo
2.01

finishing

St. Truiden-0.15scores less
KVC Westerlo-0.14scores less

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Truiden ↓

KVC Westerlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

St. Truiden or draw
72%
St. Truiden or KVC Westerlo
78%
Draw or KVC Westerlo
50%

Winning margin

St. Truiden wins by 2+
28%
KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

St. Truiden 1+ goals
86%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
58%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
30%
KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
75%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
41%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

St. Truiden (draw refunded)
64%
KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Truiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 22 matches

KVC Westerlo away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.01 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Truiden attack 1.88 + KVC Westerlo defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.94

KVC Westerlo attack 1.42 + St. Truiden defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

St. Truiden scores more
50%
level
22%
KVC Westerlo scores more
28%

St. Truiden at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo

St. Truiden beat KVC Westerlo 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in St.-Trond.