St. Truiden 2–2 Anderlecht: Result & Stats

St. Truiden

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Anderlecht

10/17/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 11Stadion Stayen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

St. Truiden49%

×Draw23%

Anderlecht28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. TruidenExpected goals in this matchAnderlecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.34

St. Truiden

1.83

Anderlecht

1.34

St. Truiden creates 37% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 31 away

1.88

creates per match

1.30

1.38

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

St. Truiden

1.88

Anderlecht

1.30

allows per match

St. Truiden

1.38

Anderlecht

1.79

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

St. Truiden-0.15scores less

Anderlecht-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Truiden ↓

Anderlecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

St. Truiden or draw

72%

St. Truiden or Anderlecht

77%

Draw or Anderlecht

51%

Winning margin

St. Truiden wins by 2+

27%

Anderlecht wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

St. Truiden 1+ goals

84%

St. Truiden 2+ goals

54%

St. Truiden 3+ goals

28%

Anderlecht 1+ goals

74%

Anderlecht 2+ goals

39%

Anderlecht 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

St. Truiden (draw refunded)

63%

Anderlecht (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Truiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 22 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.79 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Truiden attack 1.88 + Anderlecht defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.83

Anderlecht attack 1.30 + St. Truiden defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

St. Truiden scores more

49%

level

23%

Anderlecht scores more

28%

St. Truiden at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff