Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

St. Truiden vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2018

St. Truiden
St. Truiden
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
Y. Verschaeren 79'
4/18/2021Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 34Stayen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

St. Truiden49%
×Draw23%
Anderlecht28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Truiden
1.84
Anderlecht
1.33

St. Truiden creates 38% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 30 away

creates per match

St. Truiden
1.88
Anderlecht
1.29

allows per match

St. Truiden
1.38
Anderlecht
1.81

finishing

St. Truiden-0.15scores less
Anderlecht-0.19scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Truiden ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

St. Truiden or draw
72%
St. Truiden or Anderlecht
77%
Draw or Anderlecht
51%

Winning margin

St. Truiden wins by 2+
27%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

St. Truiden 1+ goals
84%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
55%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
28%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
74%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
38%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

St. Truiden (draw refunded)
64%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Truiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 22 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.81 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Truiden attack 1.88 + Anderlecht defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.84

Anderlecht attack 1.29 + St. Truiden defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

St. Truiden scores more
49%
level
23%
Anderlecht scores more
28%

St. Truiden at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
E. CobbautAnderlechtAnderlecht · D
7.7

Match Events

6'
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko
33'
Christopher Durkin
66'
F. Amuzu← M. Ashimeru
72'
J. Steuckers← F. Colidio
75'
J. Cullen← A. Trebel
79'
Y. Verschaeren↳ L. Nmecha
80'
N. Balongo← I. Mboyo
88'
M. Konaté← S. Van Dessel
88'
C. Brüls← Y. Suzuki
90+1'
P. Mukairu← Y. Verschaeren
90+1'
A. Diaby← L. Nmecha

Possession

43%St.

Shots

4St.

Pass accuracy

48%St.

Statistics

St.Anderlecht
Overview
43%Possession57%
4Total Shots15
2Corners5
10Fouls8
Shots
4Total Shots15
1On Target4
2Off Target6
1Blocked5
2Inside Box9
2Outside Box6
Passing
43%Possession57%
506Total Passes641
404Accurate Passes555
80%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: St. Truiden vs Anderlecht

Anderlecht beat St. Truiden 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on April 18, 2021.

Goals: Y. Verschaeren (79').

Anderlecht controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stayen in St.-Trond.