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St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne — Premier Division 2026

St Patrick's Athl.
St Patrick's Athl.
Preview
18:45
Shelbourne
Shelbourne
10/16/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 34Richmond Park
Big match
43%
St Patrick's Athl.
model favours
43%26%31%

St Patrick's Athl. are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

St Patrick's Athl.43%
×Draw26%
Shelbourne31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St Patrick's Athl.
1.42
Shelbourne
1.16

St Patrick's Athl. creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

St Patrick's Athl.
1.40
Shelbourne
1.39

allows per match

St Patrick's Athl.
0.92
Shelbourne
1.45

finishing

St Patrick's Athl.-0.40scores less
Shelbourne+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St Patrick's Athl. ↓

Shelbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

St Patrick's Athl. or draw
69%
St Patrick's Athl. or Shelbourne
74%
Draw or Shelbourne
57%

Winning margin

St Patrick's Athl. wins by 2+
21%
Shelbourne wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

St Patrick's Athl. 1+ goals
76%
St Patrick's Athl. 2+ goals
41%
St Patrick's Athl. 3+ goals
17%
Shelbourne 1+ goals
69%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
32%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

St Patrick's Athl. (draw refunded)
58%
Shelbourne (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St Patrick's Athl. at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.40 + Shelbourne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Shelbourne attack 1.39 + St Patrick's Athl. defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

St Patrick's Athl. scores more
43%
level
26%
Shelbourne scores more
31%

St Patrick's Athl. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "St Patrick's Athl. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shelbourne are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • St Patrick's Athl. score first in only 28% of matches
  • Even after scoring first, Shelbourne win only 41%
  • 72% of St Patrick's Athl.’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Shelbourne’s matches
  • Both teams score in only 32% of St Patrick's Athl.’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
St Patrick's Athl.
Defensively solid
Shelbourne
Attack-heavy
55%Possession56%
78%Pass accuracy80%
15.1Shots14.5
1.26xGBiggest gap1.73
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
St Patrick's Athl.Shelbourne

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
5
Shelbourne
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 40%
0–13–20–02–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Athl.
DWLDW
Shelbourne
WDDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St Patrick's Athl. face Shelbourne (Premier Division)

Premier Division returns with St Patrick's Athl. hosting Shelbourne. Match starts October 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

St Patrick's Athl. host Shelbourne at Richmond Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.