St Patrick's Athl. 1–0 Shelbourne: Result & Stats

St Patrick's Athl.

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shelbourne

J. Mulraney 69'

6/23/2023

Premier Division · Round 21Richmond Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

St Patrick's Athl.43%

×Draw26%

Shelbourne31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St Patrick's Athl.Expected goals in this matchShelbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.16

St Patrick's Athl.

1.42

Shelbourne

1.16

St Patrick's Athl. creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.40

creates per match

1.39

0.92

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

St Patrick's Athl.

1.40

Shelbourne

1.39

allows per match

St Patrick's Athl.

0.92

Shelbourne

1.45

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

St Patrick's Athl.-0.40scores less

Shelbourne+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St Patrick's Athl. ↓

Shelbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

St Patrick's Athl. or draw

69%

St Patrick's Athl. or Shelbourne

74%

Draw or Shelbourne

57%

Winning margin

St Patrick's Athl. wins by 2+

21%

Shelbourne wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

St Patrick's Athl. 1+ goals

76%

St Patrick's Athl. 2+ goals

41%

St Patrick's Athl. 3+ goals

17%

Shelbourne 1+ goals

69%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

32%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

St Patrick's Athl. (draw refunded)

58%

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St Patrick's Athl. at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.40 + Shelbourne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Shelbourne attack 1.39 + St Patrick's Athl. defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

St Patrick's Athl. scores more

43%

level

26%

Shelbourne scores more

31%

St Patrick's Athl. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "St Patrick's Athl. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

G. Molloy

Shelbourne · D

7.7

Match Events

41'

48'

51'

58'

58'

58'

58'

61'

S. Farrell← T. Wilson

65'

J. McClelland← B. McCormack

69'

J. Mulraney

73'

E. Doyle← C. Carty

74'

J. McGrath← H. Brockbank

75'

J. Hakiki← J. Wilson

82'

M. Doyle← J. Mulraney

82'

G. Arubi← M. Coyle

89'

Mark Doyle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StShelbourne

Overview

40%Possession60%

8Total Shots10

2Corners3

18Fouls19

Shots

8Total Shots10

4On Target3

3Off Target4

1Blocked3

3Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

347Total Passes530

244Accurate Passes432

70%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls19

4Yellow Cards4