St Patrick's Athl. 4–0 Shelbourne: Result & Stats

St Patrick's Athl.

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Shelbourne

B. McCormack 88'

A. Breslin 37'

E. Doyle 19', 14'

11/6/2022

Premier Division · Round 36Richmond Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

St Patrick's Athl.43%

×Draw26%

Shelbourne31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St Patrick's Athl.Expected goals in this matchShelbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.16

St Patrick's Athl.

1.42

Shelbourne

1.16

St Patrick's Athl. creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.40

creates per match

1.39

0.92

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

St Patrick's Athl.

1.40

Shelbourne

1.39

allows per match

St Patrick's Athl.

0.92

Shelbourne

1.45

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

St Patrick's Athl.-0.40scores less

Shelbourne+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St Patrick's Athl. ↓

Shelbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

St Patrick's Athl. or draw

69%

St Patrick's Athl. or Shelbourne

74%

Draw or Shelbourne

57%

Winning margin

St Patrick's Athl. wins by 2+

21%

Shelbourne wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

St Patrick's Athl. 1+ goals

76%

St Patrick's Athl. 2+ goals

41%

St Patrick's Athl. 3+ goals

17%

Shelbourne 1+ goals

69%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

32%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

St Patrick's Athl. (draw refunded)

58%

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St Patrick's Athl. at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.40 + Shelbourne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Shelbourne attack 1.39 + St Patrick's Athl. defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

St Patrick's Athl. scores more

43%

level

26%

Shelbourne scores more

31%

St Patrick's Athl. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "St Patrick's Athl. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

19'

29'

30'

31'

33'

33'

35'

M. Smith← J. Moylan

37'

A. Breslin↳ E. Doyle

39'

B. Mccormack

46'

I. Bermingham← A. Breslin

57'

M. Smith

59'

D. Carr← S. Boyd

59'

A. O'Driscoll← M. Coyle

59'

J. Giurgi← J. Wilson

62'

S. Griffin

66'

L. Browne← S. Griffin

67'

H. Brockbank← S. Curtis

67'

82'

83'

88'

89'

M. Doyle← I. Bermingham

St

Shelbourne

1

Clarke

5

▼

Griffin

32

Ledwidge

2

▼

Wilson

28

Negru

8

▼

16

7

21

10

▼

Moylan

9

▼

Boyd

23

Odumosu

19

⚽A

▼

2

4

5

22

▼

Curtis

8

Forrester

25

Timmerman

18

⚽

McCormack

9

⚽2A

▼

Doyle

15

▼

King

Manager: T. Clancy

46'▲I. Bermingham←▼A. Breslin

67'▲H. Brockbank←▼S. Curtis

67'▲A. Murphy←▼B. King

82'▲S. Atakayi←▼E. Doyle

89'▲M. Doyle←▼I. Bermingham

St Patrick's Athl. substitutes

3Bermingham12Brockbank34Murphy7Atakayi14Doyle29Barrett21Rogers11McClelland45Owolabi

Manager: D. Duff

35'▲M. Smith←▼J. Moylan

59'▲D. Carr←▼S. Boyd

59'▲A. O'Driscoll←▼M. Coyle

59'▲J. Giurgi←▼J. Wilson

66'▲L. Browne←▼S. Griffin

Shelbourne substitutes

15Smith14Carr4O'Driscoll19Giurgi31Browne23Byrne40van-der-Sluis22Hodgins36Temple

Premier Division: St Patrick's Athl. 4–0 Shelbourne

St Patrick's Athl. beat Shelbourne 4-0 in Premier Division on November 6, 2022.

Goals: E. Doyle (14', 19'), A. Breslin (37'), B. McCormack (88').

The match was played at Richmond Park in Dublin.

St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne — Premier Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier Division: St Patrick's Athl. 4–0 Shelbourne