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St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk — Premier Division 2019

St Patrick's Athl.
St Patrick's Athl.
Preview
19:00
Dundalk
Dundalk
7/24/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 25Richmond Park
Big match
45%
St Patrick's Athl.
model favours
45%27%28%

St Patrick's Athl. score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

St Patrick's Athl.45%
×Draw27%
Dundalk28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St Patrick's Athl.
1.36
Dundalk
1.00

St Patrick's Athl. creates 36% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 111 away

creates per match

St Patrick's Athl.
1.50
Dundalk
1.19

allows per match

St Patrick's Athl.
0.82
Dundalk
1.23

finishing

St Patrick's Athl.+0.00on par
Dundalk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St Patrick's Athl. ↓

Dundalk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

St Patrick's Athl. or draw
72%
St Patrick's Athl. or Dundalk
73%
Draw or Dundalk
55%

Winning margin

St Patrick's Athl. wins by 2+
21%
Dundalk wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

St Patrick's Athl. 1+ goals
74%
St Patrick's Athl. 2+ goals
39%
St Patrick's Athl. 3+ goals
16%
Dundalk 1+ goals
63%
Dundalk 2+ goals
26%
Dundalk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

St Patrick's Athl. (draw refunded)
62%
Dundalk (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St Patrick's Athl. at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.82 · 129 matches

Dundalk away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.50 + Dundalk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.36

Dundalk attack 1.19 + St Patrick's Athl. defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

St Patrick's Athl. scores more
45%
level
27%
Dundalk scores more
28%

St Patrick's Athl. at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "St Patrick's Athl. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dundalk score first in only 29% of matches
  • 74% of St Patrick's Athl.’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Dundalk have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in only 26% of St Patrick's Athl.’s matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — St Patrick's Athl. 3 vs Dundalk 4
  • St Patrick's Athl. win just 23% against the top half (vs 64% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
St Patrick's Athl.
Defensively solid
Dundalk
Balanced
52%Possession49%
80%Pass accuracyBiggest gap62%
15.2Shots13.8
1.22xG1.49
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
St Patrick's Athl.Dundalk

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
3
Dundalk
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 50%
0–24–02–12–30–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Athl.
WLDWL
Dundalk
WLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St Patrick's Athl. face Dundalk (Premier Division)

Premier Division returns with St Patrick's Athl. hosting Dundalk. Match starts July 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

St Patrick's Athl. host Dundalk at Richmond Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.