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St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City — Premier Division 2025

St Patrick's Athl.
St Patrick's Athl.
Preview
18:45
Derry City
Derry City
7/31/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 26Richmond Park
Big match
52%
St Patrick's Athl.
model favours
52%26%21%

St Patrick's Athl. score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

St Patrick's Athl.52%
×Draw26%
Derry City21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St Patrick's Athl.
1.51
Derry City
0.86

St Patrick's Athl. creates 76% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

creates per match

St Patrick's Athl.
1.83
Derry City
1.10

allows per match

St Patrick's Athl.
0.63
Derry City
1.19

finishing

St Patrick's Athl.+0.00on par
Derry City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St Patrick's Athl. ↓

Derry City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

St Patrick's Athl. or draw
79%
St Patrick's Athl. or Derry City
74%
Draw or Derry City
48%

Winning margin

St Patrick's Athl. wins by 2+
27%
Derry City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

St Patrick's Athl. 1+ goals
78%
St Patrick's Athl. 2+ goals
44%
St Patrick's Athl. 3+ goals
19%
Derry City 1+ goals
58%
Derry City 2+ goals
21%
Derry City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

St Patrick's Athl. (draw refunded)
71%
Derry City (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St Patrick's Athl. at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.63 · 30 matches

Derry City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.83 + Derry City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.51

Derry City attack 1.10 + St Patrick's Athl. defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

St Patrick's Athl. scores more
52%
level
26%
Derry City scores more
21%

St Patrick's Athl. at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "St Patrick's Athl. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 74% of St Patrick's Athl.’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Derry City have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in only 26% of St Patrick's Athl.’s matches
  • Both teams score in 71% of Derry City’s matches
  • Even after scoring first, Derry City win only 50%
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
St Patrick's Athl.
Defensively solid
Derry City
Defensively solid
52%Possession53%
80%Pass accuracy72%
15.2ShotsBiggest gap12.6
1.22xG1.34
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
St Patrick's Athl.Derry City

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
2
Derry City
Avg goals: 1.3BTTS: 17%
0–00–02–20–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Athl.
LDWLW
City
LLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: St Patrick's Athl. host Derry City

July 31, 2026: St Patrick's Athl. take on Derry City in Premier Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

St Patrick's Athl. host Derry City at Richmond Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.