ST Mirren 2–1 ST Johnstone: Result & Stats

ST Mirren

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

ST Johnstone

A. Greive 49'

C. Ronan 42' (pen)

C. Hendry 28' (pen)

2/9/2022

Premiership · 1st Phase - 26The SMISA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

ST Mirren40%

×Draw29%

ST Johnstone31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ST MirrenExpected goals in this matchST Johnstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.03

ST Mirren

1.22

ST Johnstone

1.03

ST Mirren creates 18% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 115 away

0.92

creates per match

0.93

1.14

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

ST Mirren

0.92

ST Johnstone

0.93

allows per match

ST Mirren

1.14

ST Johnstone

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ST Mirren+0.00on par

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Mirren ↓

ST Johnstone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

ST Mirren or draw

69%

ST Mirren or ST Johnstone

71%

Draw or ST Johnstone

60%

Winning margin

ST Mirren wins by 2+

18%

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

ST Mirren 1+ goals

70%

ST Mirren 2+ goals

34%

ST Mirren 3+ goals

12%

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

64%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

28%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

ST Mirren (draw refunded)

57%

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Mirren at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 129 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Mirren attack 0.92 + ST Johnstone defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.22

ST Johnstone attack 0.93 + ST Mirren defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ST Mirren scores more

40%

level

29%

ST Johnstone scores more

31%

ST Mirren at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ST Mirren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Greive

ST Mirren · F

7.9

Match Events

27'

Marcus Fraser

28'

C. HendryPenalty

33'

Murray Davidson

42'

C. RonanPenalty

49'

A. Greive↳ G. Kiltie

59'

J. Butterfield← J. Mccart

59'

J. Brown← T. Sang

59'

T. Bair← M. Davidson

63'

Liam Gordon

65'

C. Gilmour← C. MacPherson

67'

Alex Greive

73'

R. Flynn← R. Tait

82'

Callum Hendry

86'

S. May← T. Gallacher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

STST

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots10

5Corners5

6Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots10

3On Target4

5Off Target4

4Blocked2

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

395Total Passes355

266Accurate Passes234

67%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2