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ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone — FA Cup 2019

ST Mirren
ST Mirren
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
ST Johnstone
ST Johnstoneadvanced
C. McCarthy 86'
G. Middleton 74'
C. Kane 72'
5/9/2021FA CupFA Cup · Semi-finalsHampden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

ST Mirren35%
×Draw29%
ST Johnstone36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ST Mirren
1.08
ST Johnstone
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

ST Mirren
1.56
ST Johnstone
1.20

allows per match

ST Mirren
1.00
ST Johnstone
0.60

finishing

ST Mirren+0.00on par
ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Mirren ↓

ST Johnstone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

ST Mirren or draw
64%
ST Mirren or ST Johnstone
71%
Draw or ST Johnstone
65%

Winning margin

ST Mirren wins by 2+
14%
ST Johnstone wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ST Mirren 1+ goals
66%
ST Mirren 2+ goals
29%
ST Mirren 3+ goals
10%
ST Johnstone 1+ goals
67%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
30%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ST Mirren (draw refunded)
49%
ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Mirren at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Mirren attack 1.56 + ST Johnstone defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.08

ST Johnstone attack 1.20 + ST Mirren defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

ST Mirren scores more
35%
level
29%
ST Johnstone scores more
36%

ST Johnstone at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
David Wotherspoon
57'
C. Quaner← K. Dennis
65'
G. Middleton← G. Melamed
68'
D. Connolly← R. Tait
72'
C. Kane↳ G. Middleton
74'
Joe Shaughnessy
74'
G. Middleton
77'
E. Brophy← E. Erhahon
80'
Jake Doyle Hayes
86'
M. O'Halloran← C. Kane
86'
C. McCarthy↳ J. McGrath

Possession

39%ST

Shots

8ST

Statistics

STST
Overview
39%Possession61%
8Total Shots14
2Corners8
12Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots14
3On Target6
5Off Target8
Passing
39%Possession61%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone

ST Johnstone beat ST Mirren 2-1 in FA Cup on May 9, 2021.

Goals: C. Kane (72'), G. Middleton (74'), C. McCarthy (86').

ST Johnstone controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Hampden Park in Glasgow.