Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ST Mirren vs Kilmarnock — Premiership 2026

ST Mirren
ST Mirren
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
K. Vassell 37'
5/11/2024PremiershipPremiership · Championship Round - 3The SMISA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

ST Mirren50%
×Draw26%
Kilmarnock24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ST Mirren
1.48
Kilmarnock
0.94

ST Mirren creates 57% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

ST Mirren
1.06
Kilmarnock
0.96

allows per match

ST Mirren
0.91
Kilmarnock
1.90

finishing

ST Mirren-0.63scores less
Kilmarnock+0.12scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Mirren ↓

Kilmarnock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

ST Mirren or draw
76%
ST Mirren or Kilmarnock
74%
Draw or Kilmarnock
50%

Winning margin

ST Mirren wins by 2+
25%
Kilmarnock wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

ST Mirren 1+ goals
77%
ST Mirren 2+ goals
43%
ST Mirren 3+ goals
19%
Kilmarnock 1+ goals
61%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
24%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

ST Mirren (draw refunded)
67%
Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Mirren at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 14 matches

Kilmarnock away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.90 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Mirren attack 1.06 + Kilmarnock defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kilmarnock attack 0.96 + ST Mirren defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ST Mirren scores more
50%
level
26%
Kilmarnock scores more
24%

ST Mirren at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ST Mirren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
W. DennisKilmarnockKilmarnock · G
7.5

Match Events

37'
K. Vassell↳ M. Watkins
67'
K. Baccus← C. Boyd-Munce
67'
J. Scott← S. Tanser
68'
L. Jamieson← R. Strain
70'
Danny Armstrong
76'
I. Cameron← K. Vassell
80'
R. McKenzie← D. Armstrong
83'
R. Taylor← J. Bolton
85'
Will Dennis
90+1'
F. Murray← M. Kennedy
90+1'
G. Stewart← M. Watkins

Possession

62%ST

Shots

10ST

Pass accuracy

55%ST

Statistics

STKilmarnock
Overview
62%Possession38%
10Total Shots15
8Corners5
10Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots15
3On Target4
6Off Target5
1Blocked6
9Inside Box10
1Outside Box5
Passing
62%Possession38%
436Total Passes274
308Accurate Passes155
71%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls13
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: ST Mirren vs Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock beat ST Mirren 1-0 in Premiership on May 11, 2024.

Goals: K. Vassell (37').

ST Mirren controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at The SMISA Stadium in Paisley.