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ST Mirren vs Aberdeen — Premiership 2018

ST Mirren
ST Mirren
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aberdeen
Aberdeen
3/2/2024PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 29The SMISA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

ST Mirren47%
×Draw26%
Aberdeen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ST Mirren
1.48
Aberdeen
1.07

ST Mirren creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

ST Mirren
1.06
Aberdeen
1.15

allows per match

ST Mirren
0.99
Aberdeen
1.89

finishing

ST Mirren-0.61scores less
Aberdeen-0.26scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Mirren ↓

Aberdeen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ST Mirren or draw
73%
ST Mirren or Aberdeen
74%
Draw or Aberdeen
53%

Winning margin

ST Mirren wins by 2+
23%
Aberdeen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ST Mirren 1+ goals
77%
ST Mirren 2+ goals
43%
ST Mirren 3+ goals
19%
Aberdeen 1+ goals
66%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
29%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

ST Mirren (draw refunded)
63%
Aberdeen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Mirren at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.99 · 11 matches

Aberdeen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Mirren attack 1.06 + Aberdeen defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Aberdeen attack 1.15 + ST Mirren defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ST Mirren scores more
47%
level
26%
Aberdeen scores more
27%

ST Mirren at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ST Mirren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ST Mirren vs Aberdeen

ST Mirren beat Aberdeen 2-1 in Premiership on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at The SMISA Stadium in Paisley.