Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

St. Louis City II vs Sporting KC II — MLS Next Pro 2022

St. Louis City II
St. Louis City II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
6/23/2024MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 19CITYPARK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

St. Louis City II56%
×Draw20%
Sporting KC II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Louis City II
2.19
Sporting KC II
1.35

St. Louis City II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

creates per match

St. Louis City II
2.19
Sporting KC II
1.59

allows per match

St. Louis City II
1.10
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

St. Louis City II+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Louis City II ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

St. Louis City II or draw
77%
St. Louis City II or Sporting KC II
80%
Draw or Sporting KC II
44%

Winning margin

St. Louis City II wins by 2+
34%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

St. Louis City II 1+ goals
89%
St. Louis City II 2+ goals
64%
St. Louis City II 3+ goals
37%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
74%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
39%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

St. Louis City II (draw refunded)
71%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Louis City II at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.10 · 52 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Louis City II attack 2.19 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.19

Sporting KC II attack 1.59 + St. Louis City II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

St. Louis City II scores more
56%
level
20%
Sporting KC II scores more
23%

St. Louis City II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "St. Louis City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: St. Louis City II 2–0 Sporting KC II

St. Louis City II beat Sporting KC II 2-0 in MLS Next Pro on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at CITYPARK in St. Louis, Missouri.