St. Louis City II 1–2 Colorado Rapids II

St. Louis City II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Colorado Rapids II

3/18/2024

MLS Next Pro · Round 2CITYPARK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

St. Louis City II53%

×Draw21%

Colorado Rapids II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Louis City IIExpected goals in this matchColorado Rapids II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.41

St. Louis City II

2.09

Colorado Rapids II

1.41

St. Louis City II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

2.19

creates per match

1.71

1.10

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

St. Louis City II

2.19

Colorado Rapids II

1.71

allows per match

St. Louis City II

1.10

Colorado Rapids II

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Louis City II+0.00on par

Colorado Rapids II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Louis City II ↓

Colorado Rapids II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

St. Louis City II or draw

74%

St. Louis City II or Colorado Rapids II

79%

Draw or Colorado Rapids II

47%

Winning margin

St. Louis City II wins by 2+

31%

Colorado Rapids II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

St. Louis City II 1+ goals

88%

St. Louis City II 2+ goals

62%

St. Louis City II 3+ goals

34%

Colorado Rapids II 1+ goals

76%

Colorado Rapids II 2+ goals

41%

Colorado Rapids II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

St. Louis City II (draw refunded)

67%

Colorado Rapids II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Louis City II at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.10 · 52 matches

Colorado Rapids II away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.00 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Louis City II attack 2.19 + Colorado Rapids II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

Colorado Rapids II attack 1.71 + St. Louis City II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

St. Louis City II scores more

53%

level

21%

Colorado Rapids II scores more

26%

St. Louis City II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "St. Louis City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff