ST Johnstone 0–0 ST Mirren: Result & Stats

ST Johnstone

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ST Mirren

11/6/2021

Premiership · 1st Phase - 13McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

ST Johnstone41%

×Draw27%

ST Mirren31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ST JohnstoneExpected goals in this matchST Mirren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.11

ST Johnstone

1.32

ST Mirren

1.11

ST Johnstone creates 19% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 131 away

0.94

creates per match

1.05

1.18

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

ST Johnstone

0.94

ST Mirren

1.05

allows per match

ST Johnstone

1.18

ST Mirren

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

ST Mirren+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

ST Mirren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw

69%

ST Johnstone or ST Mirren

73%

Draw or ST Mirren

59%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

19%

ST Mirren wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

73%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

38%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

15%

ST Mirren 1+ goals

67%

ST Mirren 2+ goals

30%

ST Mirren 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

57%

ST Mirren (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 116 matches

ST Mirren away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.71 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 0.94 + ST Mirren defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.32

ST Mirren attack 1.05 + ST Johnstone defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ST Johnstone scores more

41%

level

27%

ST Mirren scores more

31%

ST Johnstone at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

C. McCarthy

ST Mirren · D

7.5

Match Events

25'

Alan Power

46'

S. May← G. Middleton

46'

S. Rooney← M. OHalloran

54'

Chris Kane

59'

Liam Gordon

67'

D. Wotherspoon← A. Crawford

68'

78'

86'

86'

90+3'

90+2'

90+2'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

STST

Overview

46%Possession54%

6Total Shots14

1Corners4

13Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots14

2On Target3

3Off Target6

1Blocked5

2Inside Box7

4Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

395Total Passes458

217Accurate Passes308

55%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls16

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides5