ST Johnstone 1–2 Ross County: Result & Stats

ST Johnstone

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Ross County

7/21/2019

League Cup · Group Stage - 5McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

ST Johnstone48%

×Draw22%

Ross County30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ST JohnstoneExpected goals in this matchRoss County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.48

ST Johnstone

1.94

Ross County

1.48

ST Johnstone creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

2.77

creates per match

2.11

0.85

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

ST Johnstone

2.77

Ross County

2.11

allows per match

ST Johnstone

0.85

Ross County

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Ross County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Ross County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw

70%

ST Johnstone or Ross County

78%

Draw or Ross County

52%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

27%

Ross County wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

86%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

58%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

30%

Ross County 1+ goals

77%

Ross County 2+ goals

43%

Ross County 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

62%

Ross County (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 2.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Ross County away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 2.77 + Ross County defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.94

Ross County attack 2.11 + ST Johnstone defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ST Johnstone scores more

48%

level

22%

Ross County scores more

30%

ST Johnstone at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff