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ST Johnstone vs Motherwell — Premiership 2026

ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Motherwell
Motherwell
M. Mandron 90+3'
K. van Veen 52' (pen)
5/13/2023PremiershipPremiership · Relegation Round - 2McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

ST Johnstone37%
×Draw28%
Motherwell35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ST Johnstone
1.19
Motherwell
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 116 home / 130 away

creates per match

ST Johnstone
0.94
Motherwell
1.12

allows per match

ST Johnstone
1.18
Motherwell
1.44

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par
Motherwell+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Motherwell →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw
65%
ST Johnstone or Motherwell
72%
Draw or Motherwell
63%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+
16%
Motherwell wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals
70%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
33%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
12%
Motherwell 1+ goals
68%
Motherwell 2+ goals
32%
Motherwell 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
51%
Motherwell (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 116 matches

Motherwell away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.44 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 0.94 + Motherwell defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Motherwell attack 1.12 + ST Johnstone defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

ST Johnstone scores more
37%
level
28%
Motherwell scores more
35%

ST Johnstone at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
M. MandronMotherwellMotherwell · F
7.7

Match Events

36'
James Furlong
52'
K. van VeenPenalty
61'
Z. Rudden← J. Murphy
68'
H. Paton← C. Slattery
71'
C. McLennan← G. Carey
74'
T. Bair← A. Considine
84'
C. Kane← S. May
90'
B. Mugabi← S. ODonnell
90+1'
D. Cornelius← K. van Veen
90+3'
M. Mandron↳ B. Spittal

Possession

55%ST

Shots

11ST

Pass accuracy

52%ST

Statistics

STMotherwell
Overview
55%Possession45%
11Total Shots8
6Corners4
8Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots8
1On Target4
7Off Target2
3Blocked2
5Inside Box4
6Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
363Total Passes314
253Accurate Passes203
70%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls14
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: ST Johnstone vs Motherwell

Motherwell beat ST Johnstone 2-0 in Premiership on May 13, 2023.

Goals: K. van Veen (52' pen), M. Mandron (90+3').

ST Johnstone controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at McDiarmid Park in Perth.