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ST Johnstone vs Motherwell — Premiership 2026

ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Motherwell
Motherwell
D. Wright 26'
B. Spittal 45+1'
11/12/2022PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 16McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

ST Johnstone37%
×Draw28%
Motherwell35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ST Johnstone
1.19
Motherwell
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 116 home / 130 away

creates per match

ST Johnstone
0.94
Motherwell
1.12

allows per match

ST Johnstone
1.18
Motherwell
1.44

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par
Motherwell+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Motherwell →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw
65%
ST Johnstone or Motherwell
72%
Draw or Motherwell
63%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+
16%
Motherwell wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals
70%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
33%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
12%
Motherwell 1+ goals
68%
Motherwell 2+ goals
32%
Motherwell 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
51%
Motherwell (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 116 matches

Motherwell away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.44 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 0.94 + Motherwell defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Motherwell attack 1.12 + ST Johnstone defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

ST Johnstone scores more
37%
level
28%
Motherwell scores more
35%

ST Johnstone at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
D. WrightST JohnstoneST Johnstone · M
7.9

Match Events

26'
D. Wright
28'
Stuart McKinstry
38'
Matt Penney
43'
Kevin van Veen
45+1'
B. Spittal
53'
Adam Montgomery
55'
Stephen O'Donnell
76'
J. Brown← A. Montgomery
76'
C. McLennan← S. May
76'
A. Crawford← D. Wotherspoon
76'
C. Shields← S. McKinstry
80'
Melker Hallberg
89'
T. Bair← N. Clark
89'
D. Phillips← M. Hallberg

Possession

50%ST

Shots

10ST

Pass accuracy

49%ST

Statistics

STMotherwell
Overview
50%Possession50%
10Total Shots12
8Corners4
11Fouls20
Shots
10Total Shots12
3On Target3
5Off Target7
2Blocked2
3Inside Box6
7Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
365Total Passes370
246Accurate Passes254
67%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls20
2Yellow Cards4
0Offsides1

Match Recap: ST Johnstone vs Motherwell

ST Johnstone and Motherwell drew 1-1 in Premiership on November 12, 2022.

Goals: D. Wright (26'), B. Spittal (45+1').

ST Johnstone controlled possession (50%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at McDiarmid Park in Perth.