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ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd — League Cup 2018

ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
11/10/2020League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 6McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

ST Johnstone52%
×Draw23%
Dundee Utd26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ST Johnstone
1.89
Dundee Utd
1.28

ST Johnstone creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

creates per match

ST Johnstone
2.77
Dundee Utd
1.71

allows per match

ST Johnstone
0.85
Dundee Utd
1.00

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par
Dundee Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Dundee Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw
74%
ST Johnstone or Dundee Utd
77%
Draw or Dundee Utd
48%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+
29%
Dundee Utd wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals
85%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
56%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
29%
Dundee Utd 1+ goals
72%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
37%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
67%
Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 2.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Dundee Utd away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 2.77 + Dundee Utd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Dundee Utd attack 1.71 + ST Johnstone defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ST Johnstone scores more
52%
level
23%
Dundee Utd scores more
26%

ST Johnstone at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: ST Johnstone 0–0 Dundee Utd

ST Johnstone and Dundee Utd drew 0-0 in League Cup on November 10, 2020.

The match was played at McDiarmid Park in Perth.