ST Johnstone 1–3 Celtic: Result & Stats

ST Johnstone

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Celtic

C. Kane 69'

N. Bitton 82'

L. Abada 22', 9'

12/26/2021

Premiership · 1st Phase - 20McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

ST Johnstone21%

×Draw24%

Celtic54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ST JohnstoneExpected goals in this matchCeltic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.67

ST Johnstone

0.94

Celtic

1.67

Celtic creates 78% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 127 away

0.94

creates per match

2.17

1.18

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

ST Johnstone

0.94

Celtic

2.17

allows per match

ST Johnstone

1.18

Celtic

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Celtic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw

46%

ST Johnstone or Celtic

76%

Draw or Celtic

79%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

7%

Celtic wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

61%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

24%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

7%

Celtic 1+ goals

81%

Celtic 2+ goals

50%

Celtic 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

28%

Celtic (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 116 matches

Celtic away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.93 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 0.94 + Celtic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Celtic attack 2.17 + ST Johnstone defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ST Johnstone scores more

21%

level

24%

Celtic scores more

54%

Celtic at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

L. Abada

Celtic · F

8.6

Match Events

9'

L. Abada

15'

J. Dawson← K. Furuhashi

22'

L. Abada↳ T. Rogić

46'

C. Kane← C. Bryson

46'

L. Craig← A. Crawford

59'

Jacob Luke Butterfield

63'

G. Middleton← S. May

69'

C. Kane↳ V. Solomon-Otabor

82'

N. Bitton↳ T. Rogić

85'

Lars Dendoncker

86'

Nir Bitton

87'

A. Montgomery← L. Scales

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

STCeltic

Overview

28%Possession72%

5Total Shots25

3Corners9

11Fouls9

Shots

5Total Shots25

1On Target10

4Off Target9

0Blocked6

3Inside Box16

2Outside Box9

Passing

28%Possession72%

257Total Passes670

151Accurate Passes582

59%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1