ST Johnstone 0–1 Celtic: Result & Stats | FA Cup

ST Johnstone

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Celtic

R. Christie 81'

3/1/2020

FA Cup · Quarter-finalsMcDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

ST Johnstone17%

×Draw26%

Celtic58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ST JohnstoneExpected goals in this matchCeltic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.68

1.53

ST Johnstone

0.68

Celtic

1.53

Celtic creates 125% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

2.18

0.88

allows per match

0.36

creates per match

ST Johnstone

1.00

Celtic

2.18

allows per match

ST Johnstone

0.88

Celtic

0.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Celtic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–117%

0–213%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw

42%

ST Johnstone or Celtic

74%

Draw or Celtic

83%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

4%

Celtic wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

49%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

15%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

3%

Celtic 1+ goals

78%

Celtic 2+ goals

45%

Celtic 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

22%

Celtic (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Celtic away — creates 2.18, concedes 0.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 1.00 + Celtic defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.68

Celtic attack 2.18 + ST Johnstone defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ST Johnstone scores more

17%

level

26%

Celtic scores more

58%

Celtic at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

M. Butcher

45'

N. Bitton

53'

C. Hendry

65'

T. Rogić← L. Griffiths

76'

76'

79'

81'

83'

M. O'Halloran← D. Wotherspoon

87'

V. Bayo← O. Édouard

89'

F. Forster

89'

L. Gordon

ST

Celtic

67

Forster

2

Jullien

35

Ajer

3

▼

8

6

49

42

17

⚽

Christie

9

▼

Griffiths

22

▼

1

3

23

4

15

10

▼

7

16

18

14

22

▼

Hendry

Manager: T. Wright

76'▲C. Kane←▼C. Hendry

83'▲M. O'Halloran←▼D. Wotherspoon

ST Johnstone substitutes

9Kane17O'Halloran19Holt12Parish26Craig24Booth11Swanson

Manager: N. Lennon

65'▲T. Rogić←▼L. Griffiths

76'▲J. Hayes←▼G. Taylor

87'▲V. Bayo←▼O. Édouard

Celtic substitutes

18Rogić15Hayes10Bayo30Frimpong29Bain33Elhamed11Klimala