ST Johnstone 1–2 Ayr Utd: Result & Stats

ST Johnstone

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ayr Utd

M. Kucheryavyi 43'

B. Dempsey 71'

G. Stanger 29'

7/25/2023

League Cup · Group Stage - 6McDiarmid Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

ST Johnstone51%

×Draw21%

Ayr Utd28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ST JohnstoneExpected goals in this matchAyr Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.53

ST Johnstone

2.11

Ayr Utd

1.53

ST Johnstone creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

2.77

creates per match

2.20

0.85

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

ST Johnstone

2.77

Ayr Utd

2.20

allows per match

ST Johnstone

0.85

Ayr Utd

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ST Johnstone ↓

Ayr Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

ST Johnstone or draw

72%

ST Johnstone or Ayr Utd

79%

Draw or Ayr Utd

49%

Winning margin

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

30%

Ayr Utd wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

88%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

62%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

35%

Ayr Utd 1+ goals

78%

Ayr Utd 2+ goals

45%

Ayr Utd 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

64%

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ST Johnstone at home — creates 2.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Ayr Utd away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ST Johnstone attack 2.77 + Ayr Utd defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.11

Ayr Utd attack 2.20 + ST Johnstone defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

ST Johnstone scores more

51%

level

21%

Ayr Utd scores more

28%

ST Johnstone at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "ST Johnstone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

G. Stanger↳ J. Murphy

35'

B. Dempsey

43'

M. Kucheryavyi↳ G. Carey

67'

A. Murdoch

68'

P. Reading← F. Ecrepont

69'

S. Ashford← F. Bryden

70'

N. McAllister

71'

B. Dempsey

73'

J. Murphy

77'

T. Steven← M. Kucheryavyi

84'

G. Carey

86'

J. Mylchreest← L. Jephcott

86'

S. Tomlinson← F. Amartey

90+3'

S. Taylor

ST

Ayr

1

Albinson

5

McGinty

14

⚽

Stanger

21

▼

Ecrepont

2

McAlliste

6

Murdoch

8

⚽

Dempsey

15

A

Murphy

17

▼

Amartey

22

McKenzie

30

▼

1

4

5

6

3

11

A

Carey

14

Wright

25

Ballantyn

15

⚽

▼

Kucheryav

7

May

16

▼

Jephcott

Manager: S. MacLean

77'▲T. Steven←▼M. Kucheryavyi

86'▲J. Mylchreest←▼L. Jephcott

ST Johnstone substitutes

33Steven45Mylchreest20Sinclair32Parker42McCrystal24Booth41Klimionek34Phillips28Ferguson

Manager: L. Bullen

68'▲P. Reading←▼F. Ecrepont

69'▲S. Ashford←▼F. Bryden

86'▲S. Tomlinson←▼F. Amartey

Ayr Utd substitutes

3Reading23Ashford24Tomlinson16Pendlebury18Smith32Watret31Mutch