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St. Gallen W vs Luzern W — AXA Women’s Super League 2020

St. Gallen W
St. Gallen W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Luzern W
Luzern W
11/4/2023AXA Women’s Super LeagueAXA Women’s Super League · Round 8Stadion Espenmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

St. Gallen W52%
×Draw22%
Luzern W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Gallen W
2.01
Luzern W
1.38

St. Gallen W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 70 away

creates per match

St. Gallen W
2.09
Luzern W
1.43

allows per match

St. Gallen W
1.33
Luzern W
1.94

finishing

St. Gallen W+0.00on par
Luzern W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Gallen W ↓

Luzern W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

St. Gallen W or draw
74%
St. Gallen W or Luzern W
78%
Draw or Luzern W
48%

Winning margin

St. Gallen W wins by 2+
30%
Luzern W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

St. Gallen W 1+ goals
87%
St. Gallen W 2+ goals
59%
St. Gallen W 3+ goals
32%
Luzern W 1+ goals
75%
Luzern W 2+ goals
40%
Luzern W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

St. Gallen W (draw refunded)
66%
Luzern W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Gallen W at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.33 · 69 matches

Luzern W away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.94 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Gallen W attack 2.09 + Luzern W defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.01

Luzern W attack 1.43 + St. Gallen W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

St. Gallen W scores more
52%
level
22%
Luzern W scores more
26%

St. Gallen W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "St. Gallen W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AXA Women’s Super League: St. Gallen W 2–2 Luzern W

St. Gallen W and Luzern W drew 2-2 in AXA Women’s Super League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Espenmoos in St. Gallen.