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St. Albans Saints vs Green Gully — Victoria NPL 2026

St. Albans Saints
St. Albans Saints
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Green Gully
Green Gully
8/19/2023Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 26Churchill Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

St. Albans Saints33%
×Draw25%
Green Gully42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Albans Saints
1.34
Green Gully
1.55

Green Gully creates 16% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 87 away

creates per match

St. Albans Saints
1.16
Green Gully
1.32

allows per match

St. Albans Saints
1.78
Green Gully
1.52

finishing

St. Albans Saints+0.00on par
Green Gully+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Albans Saints ↓

Green Gully →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

St. Albans Saints or draw
58%
St. Albans Saints or Green Gully
75%
Draw or Green Gully
67%

Winning margin

St. Albans Saints wins by 2+
15%
Green Gully wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

St. Albans Saints 1+ goals
74%
St. Albans Saints 2+ goals
39%
St. Albans Saints 3+ goals
15%
Green Gully 1+ goals
79%
Green Gully 2+ goals
46%
Green Gully 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

St. Albans Saints (draw refunded)
44%
Green Gully (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Albans Saints at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.78 · 73 matches

Green Gully away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Albans Saints attack 1.16 + Green Gully defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Green Gully attack 1.32 + St. Albans Saints defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

St. Albans Saints scores more
33%
level
25%
Green Gully scores more
42%

Green Gully at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Green Gully will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: St. Albans Saints 0–2 Green Gully

Green Gully beat St. Albans Saints 2-0 in Victoria NPL on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Churchill Reserve in Melbourne.