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St. Albans Saints vs Avondale — Victoria NPL 2026

St. Albans Saints
St. Albans Saints
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Avondale
Avondale
7/23/2023Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 23Churchill Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

St. Albans Saints22%
×Draw22%
Avondale56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Albans Saints
1.17
Avondale
2.00

Avondale creates 71% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 87 away

creates per match

St. Albans Saints
1.16
Avondale
2.22

allows per match

St. Albans Saints
1.78
Avondale
1.17

finishing

St. Albans Saints+0.00on par
Avondale+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Albans Saints ↓

Avondale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

St. Albans Saints or draw
44%
St. Albans Saints or Avondale
78%
Draw or Avondale
78%

Winning margin

St. Albans Saints wins by 2+
9%
Avondale wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

St. Albans Saints 1+ goals
69%
St. Albans Saints 2+ goals
33%
St. Albans Saints 3+ goals
11%
Avondale 1+ goals
86%
Avondale 2+ goals
59%
Avondale 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

St. Albans Saints (draw refunded)
28%
Avondale (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Albans Saints at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.78 · 73 matches

Avondale away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Albans Saints attack 1.16 + Avondale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Avondale attack 2.22 + St. Albans Saints defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

St. Albans Saints scores more
22%
level
22%
Avondale scores more
56%

Avondale at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Albans Saints vs Avondale

Avondale beat St. Albans Saints 2-1 in Victoria NPL on July 23, 2023.

The match was played at Churchill Reserve in Melbourne.