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SSU Poli Timişoara W vs Csikszereda MC W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

SSU Poli Timişoara W
SSU Poli Timişoara W
FT
3 – 0
Csikszereda MC W
Csikszereda MC W
3/9/2024Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 1Stadionul Ştiinţa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

SSU Poli Timişoara W61%
×Draw19%
Csikszereda MC W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSU Poli Timişoara W
2.42
Csikszereda MC W
1.35

SSU Poli Timişoara W creates 79% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 49 away

creates per match

SSU Poli Timişoara W
3.54
Csikszereda MC W
1.63

allows per match

SSU Poli Timişoara W
1.08
Csikszereda MC W
1.31

finishing

SSU Poli Timişoara W+0.00on par
Csikszereda MC W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSU Poli Timişoara W ↓

Csikszereda MC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

SSU Poli Timişoara W or draw
80%
SSU Poli Timişoara W or Csikszereda MC W
81%
Draw or Csikszereda MC W
39%

Winning margin

SSU Poli Timişoara W wins by 2+
39%
Csikszereda MC W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SSU Poli Timişoara W 1+ goals
91%
SSU Poli Timişoara W 2+ goals
69%
SSU Poli Timişoara W 3+ goals
43%
Csikszereda MC W 1+ goals
74%
Csikszereda MC W 2+ goals
39%
Csikszereda MC W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

SSU Poli Timişoara W (draw refunded)
75%
Csikszereda MC W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSU Poli Timişoara W at home — creates 3.54, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Csikszereda MC W away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSU Poli Timişoara W attack 3.54 + Csikszereda MC W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.42

Csikszereda MC W attack 1.63 + SSU Poli Timişoara W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

SSU Poli Timişoara W scores more
61%
level
19%
Csikszereda MC W scores more
20%

SSU Poli Timişoara W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "SSU Poli Timişoara W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SSU Poli Timişoara W vs Csikszereda MC W

SSU Poli Timişoara W beat Csikszereda MC W 3-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Ştiinţa in Timişoara.