SSA U20 2–2 Camaçariense U20: Result & Stats

SSA U20

FT

2 – 2

Camaçariense U20

3/16/2024

Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SSA U2042%

×Draw24%

Camaçariense U2034%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSA U20Expected goals in this matchCamaçariense U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.40

SSA U20

1.60

Camaçariense U20

1.40

SSA U20 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

1.62

creates per match

1.50

1.29

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

SSA U20

1.62

Camaçariense U20

1.50

allows per match

SSA U20

1.29

Camaçariense U20

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSA U20+0.00on par

Camaçariense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSA U20 ↓

Camaçariense U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

SSA U20 or draw

66%

SSA U20 or Camaçariense U20

76%

Draw or Camaçariense U20

58%

Winning margin

SSA U20 wins by 2+

21%

Camaçariense U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SSA U20 1+ goals

80%

SSA U20 2+ goals

47%

SSA U20 3+ goals

22%

Camaçariense U20 1+ goals

75%

Camaçariense U20 2+ goals

41%

Camaçariense U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

SSA U20 (draw refunded)

56%

Camaçariense U20 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSA U20 at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Camaçariense U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSA U20 attack 1.62 + Camaçariense U20 defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Camaçariense U20 attack 1.50 + SSA U20 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SSA U20 scores more

42%

level

24%

Camaçariense U20 scores more

34%

SSA U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SSA U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff