SpVgg Greuther Furth 4–3 Karlsruher SC

SpVgg Greuther Furth

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 3

Karlsruher SC

D. Michalski 64'

D. Abiama 45+5', 12'

T. Lemperle 5'

L. Stindl 45+4'

M. Wanitzek 25'

R. Bormuth 7'

9/23/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 7Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth48%

×Draw23%

Karlsruher SC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg Greuther FurthExpected goals in this matchKarlsruher SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.32

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.77

Karlsruher SC

1.32

SpVgg Greuther Furth creates 34% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

1.34

creates per match

0.97

1.67

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.34

Karlsruher SC

0.97

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.67

Karlsruher SC

2.19

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.06on par

Karlsruher SC-0.05on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

Karlsruher SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw

71%

SpVgg Greuther Furth or Karlsruher SC

77%

Draw or Karlsruher SC

52%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

26%

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

83%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

53%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

26%

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals

73%

Karlsruher SC 2+ goals

38%

Karlsruher SC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

63%

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

Karlsruher SC away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.19 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.34 + Karlsruher SC defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.77

Karlsruher SC attack 0.97 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

48%

level

23%

Karlsruher SC scores more

29%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

D. Abiama

SpVgg Greuther Furth · F

8.0

Match Events

5'

T. Lemperle↳ J. Green

7'

R. Bormuth↳ P. Nebel

10'

Robin BormuthGoal confirmed

12'

D. Abiama

18'

Jérôme Gondorf

19'

Leon Jensen

25'

M. Wanitzek↳ P. Heise

36'

42'

45+4'

45+5'

46'

53'

R. Wagner← O. Kiomourtzoglou

55'

Julian Green

55'

Julian Green

64'

D. Michalski↳ T. Lemperle

69'

B. Zivzivadze← J. Gondorf

69'

D. Brosinski← P. Nebel

72'

L. Petkov← T. Lemperle

72'

O. Haddadi← N. Gießelmann

74'

Sebastian Jung

78'

D. Herold← P. Heise

78'

I. Matanović← S. Jung

90+7'

90+5'

90+1'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpVggKarlsruher

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots16

9Corners4

10Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots16

6On Target5

4Off Target5

0Blocked6

9Inside Box12

1Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

334Total Passes568

262Accurate Passes477

78%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls12

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

2. Bundesliga: SpVgg Greuther Furth 4–3 Karlsruher SC

SpVgg Greuther Furth beat Karlsruher SC 4-3 in 2. Bundesliga on September 23, 2023.

Goals: T. Lemperle (5'), R. Bormuth (7'), D. Abiama (12', 45+5'), M. Wanitzek (25'), L. Stindl (45+4'), D. Michalski (64').

Karlsruher SC controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Fürth.

SpVgg Greuther Furth vs Karlsruher SC — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

2. Bundesliga: SpVgg Greuther Furth 4–3 Karlsruher SC