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Spratzern vs Zwettl — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Spratzern
Spratzern
CANC
13:00
Zwettl
Zwettl
12/5/2020Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 14Sportplatz ASV Ofenbinder Spratzern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Spratzern37%
×Draw25%
Zwettl38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spratzern
1.44
Zwettl
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 85 away

creates per match

Spratzern
1.15
Zwettl
1.21

allows per match

Spratzern
1.70
Zwettl
1.73

finishing

Spratzern+0.00on par
Zwettl+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spratzern ↓

Zwettl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Spratzern or draw
62%
Spratzern or Zwettl
75%
Draw or Zwettl
63%

Winning margin

Spratzern wins by 2+
17%
Zwettl wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Spratzern 1+ goals
76%
Spratzern 2+ goals
42%
Spratzern 3+ goals
18%
Zwettl 1+ goals
77%
Zwettl 2+ goals
43%
Zwettl 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Spratzern (draw refunded)
49%
Zwettl (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spratzern at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Zwettl away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.73 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spratzern attack 1.15 + Zwettl defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Zwettl attack 1.21 + Spratzern defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spratzern scores more
37%
level
25%
Zwettl scores more
38%

Zwettl at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zwettl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spratzern face Zwettl (Landesliga - Niederosterreich)

Landesliga - Niederosterreich returns with Spratzern hosting Zwettl. Match starts December 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Spratzern host Zwettl at Sportplatz ASV Ofenbinder Spratzern.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.