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Spratzern vs Krems — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Spratzern
Spratzern
FT
0 – 3
Krems
Krems
8/14/2019Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 1Sportplatz ASV Ofenbinder Spratzern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Spratzern23%
×Draw23%
Krems54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spratzern
1.09
Krems
1.79

Krems creates 64% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 26 away

creates per match

Spratzern
1.15
Krems
1.88

allows per match

Spratzern
1.70
Krems
1.04

finishing

Spratzern+0.00on par
Krems+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spratzern ↓

Krems →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Spratzern or draw
46%
Spratzern or Krems
77%
Draw or Krems
77%

Winning margin

Spratzern wins by 2+
9%
Krems wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Spratzern 1+ goals
66%
Spratzern 2+ goals
30%
Spratzern 3+ goals
10%
Krems 1+ goals
83%
Krems 2+ goals
53%
Krems 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Spratzern (draw refunded)
30%
Krems (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spratzern at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Krems away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spratzern attack 1.15 + Krems defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Krems attack 1.88 + Spratzern defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Spratzern scores more
23%
level
23%
Krems scores more
54%

Krems at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Krems will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spratzern vs Krems

Krems beat Spratzern 3-0 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on August 14, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz ASV Ofenbinder Spratzern in St. Pölten.