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Sportlust '46 vs TEC — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Sportlust '46
Sportlust '46
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
TEC
TEC
11/4/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 11Sportpark Cromwijck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sportlust '4639%
×Draw24%
TEC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportlust '46
1.56
TEC
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sportlust '46
1.94
TEC
2.12

allows per match

Sportlust '46
0.88
TEC
1.18

finishing

Sportlust '46+0.00on par
TEC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportlust '46 ↓

TEC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sportlust '46 or draw
63%
Sportlust '46 or TEC
76%
Draw or TEC
61%

Winning margin

Sportlust '46 wins by 2+
19%
TEC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sportlust '46 1+ goals
79%
Sportlust '46 2+ goals
46%
Sportlust '46 3+ goals
21%
TEC 1+ goals
78%
TEC 2+ goals
44%
TEC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sportlust '46 (draw refunded)
52%
TEC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportlust '46 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

TEC away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportlust '46 attack 1.94 + TEC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.56

TEC attack 2.12 + Sportlust '46 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sportlust '46 scores more
39%
level
24%
TEC scores more
37%

Sportlust '46 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sportlust '46 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Sportlust '46 1–1 TEC

Sportlust '46 and TEC drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Cromwijck in Woerden.