Sportivo Peñarol 4–1 Sportivo Desamparados

Sportivo Peñarol

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sportivo Desamparados

A. Cantero 71', 20'

F. Paz 62'

C. Fernández 45+2'

J. Lastra 45'

2/20/2020

Copa Argentina · Qualifying RoundEstadio San Juan del Bicentenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sportivo Peñarol81%

×Draw12%

Sportivo Desamparados6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo PeñarolExpected goals in this matchSportivo Desamparados

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

0.67

Sportivo Peñarol

2.83

Sportivo Desamparados

0.67

Sportivo Peñarol creates 322% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

3.33

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Sportivo Peñarol

3.33

Sportivo Desamparados

0.33

allows per match

Sportivo Peñarol

1.00

Sportivo Desamparados

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Peñarol ↓

Sportivo Desamparados →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sportivo Peñarol or draw

94%

Sportivo Peñarol or Sportivo Desamparados

88%

Draw or Sportivo Desamparados

19%

Winning margin

Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+

61%

Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals

94%

Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals

77%

Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals

53%

Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals

49%

Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals

15%

Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)

93%

Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Peñarol at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Sportivo Desamparados away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Peñarol attack 3.33 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.83

Sportivo Desamparados attack 0.33 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Sportivo Peñarol scores more

81%

level

12%

Sportivo Desamparados scores more

6%

Sportivo Peñarol at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Sportivo Peñarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

A. Cantero

45'

J. Lastra

45+2'

C. Fernández

53'

L. Dilelio← A. Sánchez

62'

F. Paz

70'

P. Jofré← A. Callejas

71'

A. Cantero

72'

A. Pérez← F. Paz

75'

L. Espejo← A. Cantero

80'

G. Pérez← L. Pereira

85'

N. Martínez← B. Rodríguez

Sportivo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Paz

⚽2

▼

Cantero

Díaz

Manager: C. Bove

72'▲A. Pérez←▼F. Paz

75'▲L. Espejo←▼A. Cantero

80'▲G. Pérez←▼L. Pereira

Sportivo Peñarol substitutes

PérezEspejoPérezVicentelaArturiaViturroMuñoz

Manager: V. Godoy

53'▲L. Dilelio←▼A. Sánchez

70'▲P. Jofré←▼A. Callejas

85'▲N. Martínez←▼B. Rodríguez

Sportivo Desamparados substitutes

DilelioJofréMartínezCrusatGarcíaRodríguezMuner

Match Recap: Sportivo Peñarol vs Sportivo Desamparados

Sportivo Peñarol beat Sportivo Desamparados 4-1 in Copa Argentina on February 20, 2020.

Goals: A. Cantero (20', 71'), J. Lastra (45'), C. Fernández (45+2'), F. Paz (62').

The match was played at Estadio San Juan del Bicentenario in San Juan, Provincia de San Juan.

Sportivo Peñarol vs Sportivo Desamparados — Copa Argentina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sportivo Peñarol vs Sportivo Desamparados