Sportivo Peñarol 4–3 Huracan Las Heras

Sportivo Peñarol

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Huracan Las Heras

9/29/2021

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 25Estadio Ramón Pablo Rojas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Sportivo Peñarol46%

×Draw28%

Huracan Las Heras25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo PeñarolExpected goals in this matchHuracan Las Heras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.89

Sportivo Peñarol

1.31

Huracan Las Heras

0.89

Sportivo Peñarol creates 47% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 110 away

1.31

creates per match

0.67

1.10

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sportivo Peñarol

1.31

Huracan Las Heras

0.67

allows per match

Sportivo Peñarol

1.10

Huracan Las Heras

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Huracan Las Heras+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Peñarol ↓

Huracan Las Heras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sportivo Peñarol or draw

75%

Sportivo Peñarol or Huracan Las Heras

72%

Draw or Huracan Las Heras

54%

Winning margin

Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+

22%

Huracan Las Heras wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals

73%

Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals

38%

Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals

14%

Huracan Las Heras 1+ goals

59%

Huracan Las Heras 2+ goals

22%

Huracan Las Heras 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)

65%

Huracan Las Heras (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Peñarol at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 61 matches

Huracan Las Heras away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.32 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Peñarol attack 1.31 + Huracan Las Heras defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Huracan Las Heras attack 0.67 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sportivo Peñarol scores more

46%

level

28%

Huracan Las Heras scores more

25%

Sportivo Peñarol at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sportivo Peñarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff