Sportivo Luqueno 1–0 Club Guarani: Result & Stats

Sportivo Luqueno

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club Guarani

3/10/2024

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 9Estadio Feliciano Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Sportivo Luqueno30%

×Draw27%

Club Guarani42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo LuquenoExpected goals in this matchClub Guarani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.34

Sportivo Luqueno

1.09

Club Guarani

1.34

Club Guarani creates 23% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 97 away

1.13

creates per match

1.39

1.30

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.13

Club Guarani

1.39

allows per match

Sportivo Luqueno

1.30

Club Guarani

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Luqueno ↓

Club Guarani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sportivo Luqueno or draw

58%

Sportivo Luqueno or Club Guarani

73%

Draw or Club Guarani

70%

Winning margin

Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+

12%

Club Guarani wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals

66%

Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals

30%

Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals

10%

Club Guarani 1+ goals

74%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

39%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)

42%

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Luqueno at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.30 · 86 matches

Club Guarani away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.06 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.13 + Club Guarani defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Club Guarani attack 1.39 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sportivo Luqueno scores more

30%

level

27%

Club Guarani scores more

42%

Club Guarani at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff