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Sportivo Las Parejas vs Atletico Parana — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sportivo Las Parejas
Sportivo Las Parejas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Parana
Atletico Parana
11/29/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 2 - 16Estadio La Perrera (Las Parejas, Provincia de Santa Fe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sportivo Las Parejas55%
×Draw27%
Atletico Parana18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Las Parejas
1.43
Atletico Parana
0.69

Sportivo Las Parejas creates 107% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sportivo Las Parejas
1.24
Atletico Parana
0.68

allows per match

Sportivo Las Parejas
0.70
Atletico Parana
1.61

finishing

Sportivo Las Parejas+0.00on par
Atletico Parana+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Las Parejas ↓

Atletico Parana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sportivo Las Parejas or draw
82%
Sportivo Las Parejas or Atletico Parana
73%
Draw or Atletico Parana
45%

Winning margin

Sportivo Las Parejas wins by 2+
28%
Atletico Parana wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sportivo Las Parejas 1+ goals
76%
Sportivo Las Parejas 2+ goals
42%
Sportivo Las Parejas 3+ goals
17%
Atletico Parana 1+ goals
50%
Atletico Parana 2+ goals
15%
Atletico Parana 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Las Parejas (draw refunded)
75%
Atletico Parana (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Las Parejas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.70 · 110 matches

Atletico Parana away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Las Parejas attack 1.24 + Atletico Parana defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Atletico Parana attack 0.68 + Sportivo Las Parejas defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sportivo Las Parejas scores more
55%
level
27%
Atletico Parana scores more
18%

Sportivo Las Parejas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sportivo Las Parejas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportivo Las Parejas vs Atletico Parana

Atletico Parana beat Sportivo Las Parejas 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio La Perrera (Las Parejas, Provincia de Santa Fe).