Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sportivo Iteno vs Sportivo Trinidense — Division Intermedia 2018

Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
PST
22:00
Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
6/20/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 14Estadio Salvador Morga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Sportivo Iteno33%
×Draw27%
Sportivo Trinidense39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Iteno
1.15
Sportivo Trinidense
1.28

Sportivo Trinidense creates 11% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 62 away

creates per match

Sportivo Iteno
0.97
Sportivo Trinidense
1.34

allows per match

Sportivo Iteno
1.22
Sportivo Trinidense
1.32

finishing

Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par
Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Iteno ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sportivo Iteno or draw
61%
Sportivo Iteno or Sportivo Trinidense
73%
Draw or Sportivo Trinidense
67%

Winning margin

Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
14%
Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
68%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
32%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
11%
Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
72%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
37%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
46%
Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Iteno at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.97 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.34 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sportivo Iteno scores more
33%
level
27%
Sportivo Trinidense scores more
39%

Sportivo Trinidense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sportivo Iteno host Sportivo Trinidense

June 20, 2020: Sportivo Iteno take on Sportivo Trinidense in Division Intermedia. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sportivo Iteno host Sportivo Trinidense at Estadio Salvador Morga.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.