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Sportivo Iteno vs Resistencia — Division Intermedia 2018

Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
PST
22:00
Resistencia
Resistencia
5/16/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 9Estadio Salvador Morga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Sportivo Iteno34%
×Draw28%
Resistencia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Iteno
1.11
Resistencia
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 83 away

creates per match

Sportivo Iteno
0.97
Resistencia
1.16

allows per match

Sportivo Iteno
1.22
Resistencia
1.25

finishing

Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par
Resistencia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Iteno ↓

Resistencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sportivo Iteno or draw
62%
Sportivo Iteno or Resistencia
72%
Draw or Resistencia
66%

Winning margin

Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
14%
Resistencia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
67%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
30%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
10%
Resistencia 1+ goals
70%
Resistencia 2+ goals
33%
Resistencia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
47%
Resistencia (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Iteno at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

Resistencia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.97 + Resistencia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Resistencia attack 1.16 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sportivo Iteno scores more
34%
level
28%
Resistencia scores more
38%

Resistencia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Resistencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportivo Iteno face Resistencia (Division Intermedia)

Division Intermedia returns with Sportivo Iteno hosting Resistencia. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sportivo Iteno host Resistencia at Estadio Salvador Morga.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.