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Sportivo Iteno vs Guaraní de Trinidad — Division Intermedia 2018

Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
PST
00:00
Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
4/19/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 5Estadio Salvador Morga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Sportivo Iteno36%
×Draw28%
Guaraní de Trinidad35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportivo Iteno
1.16
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 32 away

creates per match

Sportivo Iteno
0.97
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.06

allows per match

Sportivo Iteno
1.22
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.34

finishing

Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par
Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Iteno ↓

Guaraní de Trinidad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sportivo Iteno or draw
65%
Sportivo Iteno or Guaraní de Trinidad
72%
Draw or Guaraní de Trinidad
64%

Winning margin

Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
15%
Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
69%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
32%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
11%
Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
68%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
32%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
51%
Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Iteno at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

Guaraní de Trinidad away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.97 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 1.06 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sportivo Iteno scores more
36%
level
28%
Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
35%

Sportivo Iteno at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sportivo Iteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sportivo Iteno host Guaraní de Trinidad

April 19, 2020: Sportivo Iteno take on Guaraní de Trinidad in Division Intermedia. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sportivo Iteno host Guaraní de Trinidad at Estadio Salvador Morga.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.