Sportivo Desamparados 2–2 Huracan Las Heras

Sportivo Desamparados

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Huracan Las Heras

H. Balbuena 90+1'

J. Lastra 88'

F. Giusepponi 51'

C. Lucero 30'

12/7/2019

Torneo Federal A · South - 15Estadio El Serpentario (San Juan, Provincia de San Juan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sportivo Desamparados47%

×Draw31%

Huracan Las Heras22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo DesamparadosExpected goals in this matchHuracan Las Heras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.71

Sportivo Desamparados

1.19

Huracan Las Heras

0.71

Sportivo Desamparados creates 68% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 110 away

1.05

creates per match

0.67

0.75

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sportivo Desamparados

1.05

Huracan Las Heras

0.67

allows per match

Sportivo Desamparados

0.75

Huracan Las Heras

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Huracan Las Heras+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Desamparados ↓

Huracan Las Heras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Sportivo Desamparados or draw

78%

Sportivo Desamparados or Huracan Las Heras

69%

Draw or Huracan Las Heras

53%

Winning margin

Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+

21%

Huracan Las Heras wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals

70%

Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals

33%

Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals

12%

Huracan Las Heras 1+ goals

51%

Huracan Las Heras 2+ goals

16%

Huracan Las Heras 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)

68%

Huracan Las Heras (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Desamparados at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.75 · 60 matches

Huracan Las Heras away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.32 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Desamparados attack 1.05 + Huracan Las Heras defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Huracan Las Heras attack 0.67 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sportivo Desamparados scores more

47%

level

31%

Huracan Las Heras scores more

22%

Sportivo Desamparados at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sportivo Desamparados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

C. Lucero

46'

F. Torres← N. Ibarlucea

51'

F. Giusepponi

53'

D. Farías← A. Sánchez

63'

M. Montejano← R. Tapia

65'

E. García← J. Juncos

77'

E. Tejada← H. Tifner

84'

D. García← M. Herrera

88'

J. Lastra

90+1'

H. Balbuena

Sportivo

Huracan

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: V. Godoy

46'▲F. Torres←▼N. Ibarlucea

53'▲D. Farías←▼A. Sánchez

63'▲M. Montejano←▼R. Tapia

Sportivo Desamparados substitutes

TorresFaríasMontejano

Manager: A. Abaurre

65'▲E. García←▼J. Juncos

77'▲E. Tejada←▼H. Tifner

84'▲D. García←▼M. Herrera

Huracan Las Heras substitutes

GarcíaTejadaGarcía