Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sporting San Miguelito vs Union Cocle — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito
Preview
01:30
Union Cocle
Union Cocle
10/6/2026Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 11Estadio Los Andes II
39%
Sporting San Miguelito
model favours
39%31%30%
1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sporting San Miguelito39%
×Draw31%
Union Cocle30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting San Miguelito
1.06
Union Cocle
0.90

Sporting San Miguelito creates 18% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sporting San Miguelito
1.25
Union Cocle
0.88

allows per match

Sporting San Miguelito
0.92
Union Cocle
0.88

finishing

Sporting San Miguelito+0.00on par
Union Cocle+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting San Miguelito ↓

Union Cocle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sporting San Miguelito or draw
70%
Sporting San Miguelito or Union Cocle
69%
Draw or Union Cocle
61%

Winning margin

Sporting San Miguelito wins by 2+
15%
Union Cocle wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sporting San Miguelito 1+ goals
65%
Sporting San Miguelito 2+ goals
29%
Sporting San Miguelito 3+ goals
9%
Union Cocle 1+ goals
59%
Union Cocle 2+ goals
23%
Union Cocle 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sporting San Miguelito (draw refunded)
56%
Union Cocle (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting San Miguelito at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.92 · 132 matches

Union Cocle away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting San Miguelito attack 1.25 + Union Cocle defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Union Cocle attack 0.88 + Sporting San Miguelito defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sporting San Miguelito scores more
39%
level
31%
Union Cocle scores more
30%

Sporting San Miguelito at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sporting San Miguelito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Miguelito
LWLDL
Cocle
DWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sporting San Miguelito host Union Cocle

October 6, 2026: Sporting San Miguelito take on Union Cocle in Liga Panameña de Fútbol. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sporting San Miguelito host Union Cocle at Estadio Los Andes II.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.