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Sporting San Miguelito vs Tauro FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tauro FC
Tauro FC
5/22/2022Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - Semi-finalsEstadio Los Andes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Sporting San Miguelito38%
×Draw29%
Tauro FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting San Miguelito
1.17
Tauro FC
1.06

Sporting San Miguelito creates 10% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 139 away

creates per match

Sporting San Miguelito
1.25
Tauro FC
1.21

allows per match

Sporting San Miguelito
0.92
Tauro FC
1.08

finishing

Sporting San Miguelito+0.00on par
Tauro FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting San Miguelito ↓

Tauro FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sporting San Miguelito or draw
67%
Sporting San Miguelito or Tauro FC
71%
Draw or Tauro FC
62%

Winning margin

Sporting San Miguelito wins by 2+
16%
Tauro FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sporting San Miguelito 1+ goals
69%
Sporting San Miguelito 2+ goals
33%
Sporting San Miguelito 3+ goals
11%
Tauro FC 1+ goals
65%
Tauro FC 2+ goals
29%
Tauro FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sporting San Miguelito (draw refunded)
54%
Tauro FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting San Miguelito at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.92 · 132 matches

Tauro FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.08 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting San Miguelito attack 1.25 + Tauro FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Tauro FC attack 1.21 + Sporting San Miguelito defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sporting San Miguelito scores more
38%
level
29%
Tauro FC scores more
33%

Sporting San Miguelito at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sporting San Miguelito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Panameña de Fútbol: Sporting San Miguelito 0–0 Tauro FC

Sporting San Miguelito and Tauro FC drew 0-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Los Andes in San Miguelito.