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Sporting San Miguelito vs Independiente de La Chorrera — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Independiente de La Chorrera
Independiente de La Chorrera
3/5/2023Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 8Estadio Los Andes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Sporting San Miguelito37%
×Draw28%
Independiente de La Chorrera35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting San Miguelito
1.18
Independiente de La Chorrera
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 129 away

creates per match

Sporting San Miguelito
1.25
Independiente de La Chorrera
1.37

allows per match

Sporting San Miguelito
0.92
Independiente de La Chorrera
1.10

finishing

Sporting San Miguelito+0.00on par
Independiente de La Chorrera+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting San Miguelito ↓

Independiente de La Chorrera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sporting San Miguelito or draw
65%
Sporting San Miguelito or Independiente de La Chorrera
72%
Draw or Independiente de La Chorrera
63%

Winning margin

Sporting San Miguelito wins by 2+
15%
Independiente de La Chorrera wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sporting San Miguelito 1+ goals
69%
Sporting San Miguelito 2+ goals
33%
Sporting San Miguelito 3+ goals
12%
Independiente de La Chorrera 1+ goals
68%
Independiente de La Chorrera 2+ goals
32%
Independiente de La Chorrera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sporting San Miguelito (draw refunded)
51%
Independiente de La Chorrera (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting San Miguelito at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.92 · 132 matches

Independiente de La Chorrera away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting San Miguelito attack 1.25 + Independiente de La Chorrera defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Independiente de La Chorrera attack 1.37 + Sporting San Miguelito defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sporting San Miguelito scores more
37%
level
28%
Independiente de La Chorrera scores more
35%

Sporting San Miguelito at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sporting San Miguelito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting San Miguelito vs Independiente de La Chorrera

Independiente de La Chorrera beat Sporting San Miguelito 2-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Los Andes in San Miguelito.