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Sporting San Miguelito vs CD Arabe Unido — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
CD Arabe Unido
CD Arabe Unido
7/30/2023Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 2Estadio Los Andes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Sporting San Miguelito42%
×Draw29%
CD Arabe Unido29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting San Miguelito
1.19
CD Arabe Unido
0.94

Sporting San Miguelito creates 27% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 130 away

creates per match

Sporting San Miguelito
1.25
CD Arabe Unido
0.95

allows per match

Sporting San Miguelito
0.92
CD Arabe Unido
1.12

finishing

Sporting San Miguelito+0.00on par
CD Arabe Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting San Miguelito ↓

CD Arabe Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sporting San Miguelito or draw
71%
Sporting San Miguelito or CD Arabe Unido
71%
Draw or CD Arabe Unido
58%

Winning margin

Sporting San Miguelito wins by 2+
18%
CD Arabe Unido wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sporting San Miguelito 1+ goals
70%
Sporting San Miguelito 2+ goals
33%
Sporting San Miguelito 3+ goals
12%
CD Arabe Unido 1+ goals
61%
CD Arabe Unido 2+ goals
24%
CD Arabe Unido 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sporting San Miguelito (draw refunded)
59%
CD Arabe Unido (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting San Miguelito at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.92 · 132 matches

CD Arabe Unido away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting San Miguelito attack 1.25 + CD Arabe Unido defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

CD Arabe Unido attack 0.95 + Sporting San Miguelito defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting San Miguelito scores more
42%
level
29%
CD Arabe Unido scores more
29%

Sporting San Miguelito at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sporting San Miguelito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting San Miguelito 2 – 1 CD Arabe Unido

Sporting San Miguelito beat CD Arabe Unido 2-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Los Andes in San Miguelito.