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Sporting San Miguelito vs Alianza FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Alianza FC
Alianza FC
8/8/2021Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 1Estadio Prof. Javier Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Sporting San Miguelito42%
×Draw29%
Alianza FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting San Miguelito
1.21
Alianza FC
0.95

Sporting San Miguelito creates 27% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 129 away

creates per match

Sporting San Miguelito
1.25
Alianza FC
0.97

allows per match

Sporting San Miguelito
0.92
Alianza FC
1.17

finishing

Sporting San Miguelito+0.00on par
Alianza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting San Miguelito ↓

Alianza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sporting San Miguelito or draw
71%
Sporting San Miguelito or Alianza FC
71%
Draw or Alianza FC
58%

Winning margin

Sporting San Miguelito wins by 2+
18%
Alianza FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sporting San Miguelito 1+ goals
70%
Sporting San Miguelito 2+ goals
34%
Sporting San Miguelito 3+ goals
12%
Alianza FC 1+ goals
61%
Alianza FC 2+ goals
25%
Alianza FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sporting San Miguelito (draw refunded)
59%
Alianza FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting San Miguelito at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.92 · 132 matches

Alianza FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting San Miguelito attack 1.25 + Alianza FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Alianza FC attack 0.97 + Sporting San Miguelito defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting San Miguelito scores more
42%
level
29%
Alianza FC scores more
29%

Sporting San Miguelito at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sporting San Miguelito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting San Miguelito vs Alianza FC

Alianza FC beat Sporting San Miguelito 2-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Prof. Javier Cruz in Ciudad de Panamá.