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Sporting KC II vs Ventura County — USL Championship 2018

Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ventura County
Ventura County
10/14/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 57Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, Kansas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sporting KC II44%
×Draw23%
Ventura County33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting KC II
1.78
Ventura County
1.51

Sporting KC II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 77 away

creates per match

Sporting KC II
1.52
Ventura County
1.39

allows per match

Sporting KC II
1.63
Ventura County
2.04

finishing

Sporting KC II+0.00on par
Ventura County+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting KC II ↓

Ventura County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sporting KC II or draw
67%
Sporting KC II or Ventura County
77%
Draw or Ventura County
56%

Winning margin

Sporting KC II wins by 2+
24%
Ventura County wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sporting KC II 1+ goals
83%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
53%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
26%
Ventura County 1+ goals
78%
Ventura County 2+ goals
44%
Ventura County 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
57%
Ventura County (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting KC II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

Ventura County away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.04 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting KC II attack 1.52 + Ventura County defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.78

Ventura County attack 1.39 + Sporting KC II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sporting KC II scores more
44%
level
23%
Ventura County scores more
33%

Sporting KC II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sporting KC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting KC II vs Ventura County

Sporting KC II beat Ventura County 5-1 in USL Championship on October 14, 2018.

The match was played at Children's Mercy Park (Kansas City, Kansas).